Well, three years later and we have not yet closed the loop on the outcome… Today’s BusinessWeek discusses Greece considering its options:
The current Greek situation is particularly troubling since by as early as mid-year it could constitute Europe’s Lehman Brothers moment. Whatever the outcome of the Jan. 25 parliamentary election, it is difficult to see how Greece can avoid a major policy collision with its European partners. Greece is showing every sign of austerity and economic reform fatigue as its economy remains mired in the deepest of depressions.
February 3, 2014
Yes, the story continues more than two years later, but the plot and results remain the same… As noted at ZeroHedge, Europe pretends to bail out Greece… and Greece pretends to reform and comply with austerity reforms when it merely continues to spend as before until the money runs out…
At this point, I would be willing to say that Victor Davis Hanson has been the best prognosticator (see earlier posts below)
May 9, 2013
The Greek government began its first mass-firing of public-sector workers in more than 100 years this week, part of an effort to lay off 180,000 by 2015 under Europe-imposed austerity.
August 20, 2012
More bad news about the Greece economy… They have debt coming due and the country needs to issue more bonds. The Greek GDP shrank by more than 6% over the last 12 months.
I still have that lingering question: How does Greece break out of this continuous decline?
July 24, 2012
The Prime Minister of Greece declares that his country is in a depression (any surprises here?):
Greek GDP is expected by the end of this year to have shrunk by about a fifth in five consecutive years of recession since 2008…
May 11, 2012
You may have missed the Greek elections, but the results are foretelling — the citizens cast quite a few ballots for the Communist and the Nazi parties… the real takeaway that can be generalized for many western countries is that nobody wants to hear about austerity measures. Given a choice between a leader who says “you’ll have to tighten your belt and go to work” versus a prospective leader who proclaims “the government should continue to support your lifestyle”, well, the answer is pretty obvious.
The saga about bankrupt western countries continues to unfold…
May 2, 2012
It’s not getting any better in Athens…
April 5, 2012
It appears that the financial markets are not convinced that Greece has overcome its problems. The Greek 10 year bonds are now hovering around a 20% yield rate (in contrast, US 10 year bonds are approximately 2%).
February 13, 2012
There are only three scenarios likely for Greece: (1) In exchange for debt relief, a liberated Greece changes its ways, opens up its economy, redefines labor and capital markets and becomes a sort of Spain (unlikely). (2) It defaults and its drachma-based country reverts to what one remembered in the old days and what one would expect from a top-heavy, unproductive socialist state (somewhat likely). Or (3) it gets some half-relief, but soon reneges on its promised reforms and austerity, and thus like Greek cities in the 2nd Century AD, life goes on as weeds grow among the impressive, but crumbling infrastructure of the past (very likely).
February 5, 2012
The saga continues… Is the situation in Greece a microcosm of the western democracies and economic decline? A recent issue of the Washington Times discusses how the Greek bailout cycle continues unabated:
The latest examination by international debt inspectors found Greece in such dire straits that it requires another $20 billion cash infusion. This would be on top of the $171 billion promised in October, which was on top of the $145 billion Greece received in 2010…
Greece is not going to escape this repeating cycle of near-collapse and bailout without doing something that sparks sustained economic growth and private-sector job creation. It’s well past time to try something new. The last two years of bailouts and broken promises to cut back on spending have resulted in a shrinking economy and what seem to be daily news of rioting on the streets of Athens. That’s not exactly the best advertisement for Greece’s most significant industry: tourism.
January 31, 2012
The German news organization, Spiegel, is sharing its thoughts on the situation in Greece… They exclaim that European politicians are not facing reality:
Once again, Europe is arguing over a bailout for Greece, and it looks as though the result will be no different that it has been in the past… Europe’s politicians continue to battle reality. Everyone knows that Greece cannot repay its massive pile of debts, now at more than €350 billion ($459 billion). But instead of effectively reducing the financial burden, European politicians intend to approve new loans for the government in Athens and go on fighting debt with new debt.
January 29, 2012
The latest discussion is about Greece changing from using the Euro as its currency:
Germany and the rest of the eurozone can’t actually kick a country out of the euro for fear of investor panic and speculation against Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. But if Greece were to leave on its own…
January 25, 2012
The situation in Greece has many economists around the world concerned:
The rest of the world needs to sit up and take notice of what is going on in Greece right now. This is what can happen when you allow government debt to spiral out of control. Once it becomes clear that you can’t pay your debts, a financial collapse can happen very suddenly and you start losing your sovereignty to those that you must turn to for financial help.
January 15, 2012
I’ve been watching the situation in Greece with great interest. It possesses all of the leading indicators of great decline associated with a western culture that has embraced Socialism. These indicators include a very low reproduction rate among the indigenous population; huge amounts of entitlements showered among the citizens; and a government expenditure rate well out of line with the country’s gross domestic product.
When a country gets to this point what happens? Do they declare bankruptcy and the creditor nations repossess the assets? Do they hyper-inflate their way out of debt by using their own currency?
Over at the Calculated Risk blog, they talk about the fact that everyone knows that the Greeks are not willing to adopt austerity measures.
At this point, it all sounds like a huge game of “kick the can” as a means to delay the inevitable… of course, I still don’t have a clear picture of the eventual outcome.